This season has been quite the roller coaster for the Buffalo Sabres. For the first time in over a decade, the team were playoff hopefuls before the season. It has not been the start to the season the fanbase and organization wanted. A key reason to the slow start of the season has been scoring regression and the change in philosophy the Sabres are playing.
“I think that we are playing more consistent hockey this year. We don’t need seven goals to win a game, but the offense needs to start firing on all cylinders and we’ll start to string some wins together,” said optimistic Sabres fan Justin Moeller.
The Sabres started the season 10-10-2 before dropping their next four and all of the sudden have had some sort of resurgence. A key reason for the early struggles of the youthful Sabres team can be found on special teams. In 2022-2023, the Sabres powerplay was sputtering at times but still managed 23.4%, which was ninth best in the league. but had a dreadful penalty kill which was 5th worst.
This year the tables have turned. The Sabres are hitting at a woeful 14% on the powerplay, and have struggled to finish as they are shooting around four goals UNDER expected, per Moneypuck.com. On the brightside, the penalty kill has picked up some of the slack and are working at an 82% pace. Is the kill sustainable? Time will only tell.
Not only have the Sabres had their struggles on special teams, but it appears that they have changed their 5 on 5 philosophy, at least early in the season. The Sabres had a xGoals% of 49.11% last season, which was about average, but they were still a top-finishing team in the league. They finished with 15.23 goals ABOVE expected (+.18/game) (Moneypuck.com).
This year it has been a bit of a different story. The team is now BELOW expected goals for in all situations and is 23rd in goals for above expected with -7.26 so far this season (-.24/game).
Speaking defensively for the Sabres, there is slight improvement from last season, but nowhere close to the improvement General Manager Kevyn Adams and company were expecting with the additions of Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in the offseason. The Sabres rank 3rd worst in the league in medium danger shot chances against, and have given the puck away the 7th most in the league. For those that love physicality, the Sabres haven’t been too thrilling in that category, as they have measly 44.7% of hits given, which is good for 4th worst.
So after all that, is there at least any optimism? Well… the Sabres are 3-3-1 since December 7th, have had wins this season over frontrunners such as the Rangers, Golden Knights, Bruins, Avalanche, and Toronto. The Sabres are starting to get healthy again with Alex Tuch and Jack Quinn recently joining the team, with Jordan Greenway and Girgensons nearing a return in the near future. On top of that, the Eastern Conference is closely knit early this season and no team(s) in wild card range have pulled away, yet.
Although the Sabres haven’t had an ideal start to their season and it’s been very ugly, the long term success plan is still set in place. With that being said, time is of the essence and a turnaround is needed. That starts with them playing the best lineup night in and night out, improving special teams, and staying healthy. The Sabres have roughly four months for a turnaround in hopes to show any signs of life.
